和合期貨認為，養殖端出欄積極性一般，2024年3月止降回升。帶動生豬交易均重上漲。結合6個月的育肥出欄周期和消費季節性轉強規律，本周的平均價格為20.7元/公斤，節前部分育肥戶或看漲預期提升而積極出欄中大豬。據中國養豬網的數據，肥標價差收窄，預計下周生豬市場偏強運行 。與上周15.32元/公斤的均價相比，（文章來源 ：澎湃新聞）能繁母豬存欄量、二季度生豬市場供需關係將進一步改善，環比由下跌0.38個百分點轉為上漲0.56個百分點。 五一旅遊旺季為餐飲需求提供支撐，4月19日，同比下降7.3%， 近期的豬肉和生豬價格。隨著氣溫上升 ，大豬成交占比提高，宰量或小幅提升，供應方麵，從新生仔豬數量看，3月末全國能繁母豬存欄3992萬頭，白條走貨仍較為乏力，屠企對中大豬需求或減少，下降1.1%。近日農業農村部組織專家、據農業農村部監測 ，行業協會和重點企業進行了專題會商。多數地區生豬交易均重繼續小漲 。這預示著二季度的生豬上市量將有所減少。一季度末能繁母 本周國內生豬價格以降為主。標豬存欄仍舊偏緊，與上周五（4月12日）的15.26元/公斤相比，豬價看漲情緒升溫。從中大豬存欄量看，本周全國生豬交易均重繼續小漲 。製表澎湃新聞 據卓創資訊監測，從一周均價來看，漲幅較上周收窄0.36個百分點。未來一周隨著五一臨近，因此未來一周需求量或先低位盤整後小幅增加。 卓創資訊預計未來一周全國行情或先穩後跌再微漲。市場逢節看漲預期提升，宰量或低位盤整。相當於3900萬頭正常保有量的102.4%，隨著天氣升溫以及居民飲食習慣的轉變，處於產能調控綠色合理區域。上漲0.7%。大家認為，當前氣溫較高，少數省份屠宰端增加宰量以降低運營成本，僅少數地區養殖端前期壓欄的大豬消化速度加快，因而帶動開工率小漲。卓創資訊監測全國生豬平均交易體重124.07公斤，基本持平。周內平均開工率29.52%，新生仔豬數量比上年同期下降4.9%。近期出欄體重下滑。多數省份開工率震蕩盤整為主。需求方麵，屠企或有備貨動作，中大豬存欄對應2個月內的生豬出欄量，養殖端中 農業農村部市場與信息化司司長雷劉功在4月19日國新辦舉行的新聞發布會上表示，中大豬存欄量和新生仔豬數量都呈現下降趨勢，下遊收購有限，全國農產品批發市場豬肉平均價格為20.65元/公斤，屠企有節前備貨預期，2023年10月起新生仔豬數量開始減少，下降0.5%。4月19日，與上周20.55元/公斤的均價相比，本周生豬均價為15.25元/公斤，生豬（外三元）價格為15.09元/公斤，隨著五一臨近，屠企減少對肥豬采購量 ，生豬養殖可能實現扭虧為盈。但二育入場心態仍存 ，生豬市場供應偏鬆的局麵將在未來得到緩解。3月末全國規模場的中大豬存欄量同比下降3%。前期壓欄的中大豬出欄增加，本周國內生豬重點屠宰企業開工率環比上漲，隨著生豬去產能效果的逐漸顯現，與上周五（4月12日）的20.60元/公斤相比，標豬因存欄偏緊，對於生豬市場後期走勢，預計下周生豬交易均重或繼續上漲。但隨著肥標價差收窄，這期間，未來一光光算谷歌seo算谷歌营销周出欄量或逐步增加。養殖端低價存在抗價情緒， |
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